1. US-Presidential Election 2008

Barack Obama, winning more than 2206 delegates (including 441 superdelegates) has succeeded to clinch the Democratic Presidential nomination, required 2118 delegates to claim victory, and declared 'tonight I can stand before you and say that I will be the Democratic nominee for President of the United States', while Clinton signaled that she may be willing to become Obama's Vice Presidential nominee if it helps Democratic Party to win the White House. Clinton, the most successful female Presidential candidate in US history, ended her courageous campaign with an emotional speech, asking her voters to get behind Obama, endorsing his nomination and giving her full support to him. Obtaining a historic nomination becoming the first Afro American to be a major party's Presidential candidate, Obama doesn't want to decide under pressure to offer Clinton a spot on the ticket, what could be a big mistake, and seems to be in now hurry for his VP decision. However Obama and Clinton agreed on a joint public rally in an effort to unify Democratic party, cooperate in harmony and help retire her pending $20 Million campaign debt through new contributions from Obama's supporters. Having a huge fund raising success, Obama rejected Public Financing of his general-election campaign, becoming the first Presidential contender of a major party to do so. Former Vice President Al Gore, who lost the Presidential Election 2000 against Bush, many think the 2000 election was stolen from Al Gore, endorsed vigorously a Obama and will be probably on the team if Obama wins the White House. With less than six months until Election Day, Democrats must turn their full attention to the General Election, aiming to reverse eight years of failed Bush/McCain policies that have weakened the United States. John McCain, 73, who secured his nomination, which will not become official until the Republican National Convention in September, is said to be a problem-solver who could bring spending under control, avoiding the steady collapse of the government's financial house. Federal budget has increased to $3,1 Trillion from $1,8 Trillion; the national debt is now $9 Trillion, more than the combined GDP of China, Japan and Canada, and adding Medicaid, Medicare and Social Security commitments, as a nation there is a $50 Trillion hole, an invisible mortgage of $450.000 for every American family. The federal spending, the war on terror, federal judgeships and energy independence are all significant issues. General public concern, discontent and widespread dissatisfaction will conduce voters to choose the candidate they trust more to secure America's place in the world, a candidate with strong leadership qualities and capable to introduce and fight for a change. President Bush mentioned in a speach to the Israeli Parliament those who defended greater engagement with 'terrorists and radicals', interpreted as a clear reference to the presumtive Democratic nominee Obama, whom Republicans try to portray as weak in the fight against terrorism. Obama's campaign accused President Bush of launching an unprecedented attack, endorsed by John McCain, as an intention to influence the presidential election and Obama is ready and willing to fight Republicans over foreign policy and national security issues. If Obama can convince American voters he can protect them, then he cannot loose! The easiest way for McCain to lose Presidential election in November is to allow Democrats to tie him to Bush, considered an electoral liability for the Republican Party. With six consecutive months of job declines, rising rates of home foreclosures and high energy and food prices the economy gets at the forefront of the Presidential race and the debate is open. While McCain proposes tax cuts to stimulate the economy, giving most of the benefits to the wealthy and corporations, Obama is talking about a redistribution of the tax burden to reduce economic inequality, a real plan focusing on fairness and growth.

Are the US ready for an Afro-American President Obama, a change we can believe in? It's only Obama who really brings along a change!

http://usaelectionpolls.com/rss/current-democrat-polls.js

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2. Economic Outlook - Excesses & Consequences

Figures released show that US economic growth fell sharply in the last three months of 2007, as the credit crunch took effect, slowdown triggered by a slump in building activity by 16,9%, the biggest fall in 25 years, as housing prices collapsed. President Bush signed a two year bipartisan $168 Billion US economic stimulus plan with tax rebates for consumers and tax relief for business to calm financial markets and help desesperate homeowners. The Federal Reserve put into force liquidity measures with repeated interest rate cuts and lowered interest rates for banks for overnight loans from 2,25% to 2% (Fed Funds rate) and the discount rate from 2,50% to 2,25% (Federal Discount rate), taking into account the poor economic growth of only 0,6% on an annualized basis in the first quarter, declines in consumer spending, housing prices and business investment, along with spreading unemployment reaching 5,5% in May, staying steady at 5,5% in June and expecting to peak 6,4% in 2009. The Government reported the GDP in the first quarter grew better than initially estimated at 1%, however it is expeted to slow down to 0,4% during the April - June period. The IMF estimates overall losses caused by the subprime mortgage crisis at $1 Trillion or higher, including loans and securities related to commercial real estate, the consumer credit market and corporations potential losses; total losses of the US residential mortgage market could reach $565 Billion, compared to about, $400 Billion in writedowns and credit losses already booked by financial firms. With the US economy in a serious slowdown, dropping consumer confidence to the lowest in 28 years, falling again sharply in June, as anxious shoppers grapple with surging food and fuel costs and sales of new cars and trucks plunged to their lowest level in more than a decade, there is an increasing awareness that the US economy is exposed to economic contraction, entering into a 'soft' recession and might grow still about 1,3% this year, while world growth could reach 4,1%, but also fall below 3%, a level some consider would represent a global recession. The US one year inflation increased to 5% in June (including food and enegry) and it will be a task of the Federal Reserve to monitor inflation carefully, as economic weakness and high inflation develop stagflation symptoms. Expressing concern about rising inflation and inflation expectations the Federal Reserve leaves rates unchanged, but a tightening of US monetary policy with increasing interest rates is expected in the second half of the year. The economic growth forecast 2008 for the 27-nation European Union is 2% and for the 15-nation Eurozone 1,8%, while inflation rate outlook this year for EU is 3,6% and for the Eurozone 3,2%, but reaching already 3,9% in the EU and hit 4% in the Eurozone in May. The European Central Bank/ECB, alarmed about inflation trends, especially with oil prices soaring to unpredictable highs, combined with a lower growth increasing stagflation fears in the Eurozone, raised its main interest rate from 4% to 4,25% and considering rising inflation risks a another rate increase to 4,5% in September is possible. OECD has cut combined gross domestic growth forecast for its 30 members to 1,8% for 2008 and 1,7% for 2009. According to the IMF emerging economies will not be immune from a general slowdown of economic growth among wealthier countries and should make the fight against inflation their top priority! Brazil and Russia, commodity producers and beneficiaries of higher commodity prices,  will have lower growth rates, while the somewhat frenetic growth in China and India, commodity consumers, will continue with close to 10% and 8% in 2008 respectively. As result of a weaker short term Dollar, the Dollar quoted commodities are getting more attractive, obtaining major attention from investors, not only from Asia and the Gulf nations, which sell Dollar as it comes down, while the volatility and sensibility of stocks and bonds goes on. Especially oil (energy) and gold (metals) and other commodities, such as agricultural commodities, are used as hedge against inflation and the weakening Dollar, as rising commodity prices will offset dollar declines. However higher energy and agricultural commodity prices originate further inflation pressure in both rich and poor countries, posting an additional threat to global economic and political stability. To ease effects of global credit crunch, the Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank and the central banks of Canada, UK and Switzerland agreed to inject in a coordinated action cash and securities into the money markets, helping financial institutions, with growing losses due to record defaults on US home loans, to solve liquidity shortages and to extend out more credit, in an effort to increase demand and stop general economic decline. And the Federal Reserve acted again to further reduce persistent liquidity pressures, increasing size of its cash auctions and allowing credit card debt, student loans and car loans as collateral for Fed loans, also jointly with the European Central Bank and the Swiss National Bank increased currency swaps in nearly 50% to provide more Dollars to their banks, which are also holders of Dollar loans in the mortgage sector needing Dollars to meet their obligations. Since the subprime mortgage crisis Sovereign Wealth Funds (SWF), flush with cash thanks to high oil prices and surging Asian exports, already injected almost $69 Billion on recapitalizing the rich world's biggest investment banks (Citigroup, Merrill Lynch, UBS, Morgan Stanley, Barclays, Standard Chartered, HSBC), 'the rescue of capitalism' finest'. In an emergency deal, authorized by the Treasury Department and the FED, JPMorgan Chase agreed to buy the troubled fifth largest US investment bank Bear Stearns for a mere $2 per share in a stock swap transaction worth just around $236 Million, increasing price per share to 10,13 and worth of revised deal to about $1,2 Billion, to win over stockholders threatening to derail deal. JP Morgan Chase first-quarter earnings dropped 50%, Merrill Lynch reported worse than expected earnings for the first-quarter and Citibank lost $5,1 Billion in the same period, Wells Fargo's profit fell 11% and Bank of America's earnings 77% to $1,21 Billion, Goldman Sachs and Lehman Brothers confirmed both smaller than expected first-quarter profit declines of 53% and 57%. However Lehman Brothers announced a record net loss of $2,87 Billion for the second quarter ending May 31 and plans to sell $6 Billion in stock to improve capital base,  existing also speculations the recent troubles may force a sale of the firm, while Goldman Sachs earnings for the same period dropped 'only' 11%  to $2,09 Billion amid credit losses, withstanding the turmoil in the credit market better than other banks, as Morgan Stanley reported also a second quarter net income of $1,026 Billion, but down from $2,363 Billion/57% a year ago. The Federal Reserve has let it be known that it will lend Lehman Brothers (and any other investment bank it deems worthy) enough money to avoid collapsing like Bear Stearns, also into next year as long as financial market turmoil persists and the S.E.C. will take emergency action to stop abusive short-selling of stock in financial institutions in difficulties. Citigroup posted a $2,5 Billion second quarter loss, reporting mortgage and credit related costs of $11,7 Billion, having lost more than $17 Billion in the last three quarters and taken about $58 Billion in writedowns and increased credit costs since mid-2007. Merrill Lynch reported for the same period a $4,65 Billion loss, taking $9,4 Billion in additional writedowns of troubled assets, having taken already $29 Billion in earlier writedowns and totalling up to $19 Billion in losses for the past four quarters, planning the sale of its 20% Bloomberg stake worth about $4,43 Billion and its controlling interest in Financial Data Services with an enterprise value of about $3,5 Billion to raise capital, not selling for now a portion of its 49% Black Rock stake worth some $10 Billion, even as more bad debt is on the horizon; Wells Fargo, the biggest bank of the west Coast, said second quarter profit dropped 23% to $1,75 Billion, a smaller decline than expected, while J.P.Morgan Chase posted a 54% plunge to $2 Billion for its same period net income, down from $4,23 Billion a year earlier, saying it will take total charges and other related expenses of about $10,5 Billion to clean up the balance sheet of Bear Stearns, the troubled investment bank bought earlier this year, but resisting better a tough market and credit environment. Most of these banks iniated significant job cuts to reduce costs and as profits are further declining, mainly due to subprime mortgage related losses write-offs, Standard & Poor's downgraded top investment banks Lehman Brothers, Merrill Lynch and Morgan Stanley and revised outlooks to 'negative' on Bank of America, JP Morgan Chase and Citigroup, having already lowered the outlook of Goldman Sachs from 'stable' also to 'negative'. Important rating agencies, like Standard & Poor's, blamed for awarding high ratings to subprime mortgage securities agree to reform some of their core business practices according to regulatory suggestions from the Securities and Exchange Commission/S.E.C. Confidence in banking sector sank and banks continue to feel credit stress, prolonging and deepening the magnitude of credit related losses in the financial sector its negative impact on the stock market and on the economy, as banking stocks are suffering their worst losses in a generation, becoming increasingly vulnerable particularly smaller, regional lenders.  UBS, Europe's biggest casualty of the US subprime crisis, which so far has written down about $38 Billion of investments linked to US home loans market, confirmed further writedowns of up to $7,5 Billion, reducing results for the second quarter to nearly break even. Eventually the home market, which shows continued weakness,  might reach bottom line. However housing prices continue to fall and sales are still slowing, and the number of foreclosed homes returning to the market for sale are boosting uncomfortably inventories. At the end of March about 1 in 11 American mortgages were past due or in foreclosure, or about 4,8 Million loans and the problem is continuing to worsen and will be more severe than initially feared. The Senate passed a bipartisan package of tax breaks for homeowners and businesses hurt by the faltering economy - a step in the right direction - called the Foreclosure Prevention Act, which offers little aid to nearly 8000 families suffering foreclosure each day. The Federal Mortgage Plan to refinance homeowners who had fallen behind their mortgage payments, with stable, government-insured loans, has failed to really ease foreclosure crisis. A new broader housing aid bill began moving through Congress, including a program, aimed at rescuing qualified homeowners in danger of foreclosure and seeking to remain in their primary home, allowing to refinance into more affordable 30 years-fixed-rate-loans, an overhaul of the Federal Housing Administration, stronger regulations of mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, a refundable tax credit of up to $8.000 for first home owners on purchase of unoccupied housing to slow the fall of plunging home prices, an amount of $150 Million to expand counseling for borrowers to prevent foreclosure, establishing stricter disclosure rules and payment requirements for lenders, and a Housing Trust Fund to cover expenses related to the foreclosure rescue plan for three years to be used to create affordable rental housing. The new aid bill approved on Friday evening by the Senate must go back to the House to be reconciled with its version, and lawmakers hope the long-sought housing legislation can be delivered to President Bush by next week! Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac with a combined capital structure of about $83 Billion and exposures of more than $5 Trillion face themselves increasing risks and may not resist to keep housing market afloat, if housing slump is prolonging and house prices go through another steep decline! Their shares tumbled sharply as future accounting rules could force them to raise extra capital, which regulators probably will not demand, and the Federal Reserve, adopting new lending rules barring abusive or deceptive mortgage lending practices, warned housing market problems would likely extend into next year. Due to their unprecedented losses, $11 Billion in the last nine months, expecting new quarterly losses if foreclosures continue, the Treasury Department took two steps to bolster troubled housing finance companies, making plans to increase the amount they can borrow from the Government and enabling the Government to directly invest in the firms if conditions get worse; the Federal separately authorized direct lending to the two companies if necessary. Considering to raise capital Freddie Mac asked permission from the S.E.C. to sell as much as $10 Billion in new shares to investors taking advantage of market conditions, having Fannie Mae raised already $7,4 Billion in May through a sale of equity. Financial institutions worldwide are urged to fully disclose their risk exposure in order to bring about a necessary return to financial market confidence. G7 countries/the Group of Seven Industrialized Nations endorsed plans to overhaul the credit rating process for structured products, to strengthen risk management practices and to force banks to hold more capital to guard against risks, reducing investments into complex credit products, holding such assets in their trading portfolios and creating off-balance sheet investment vehicles, all activities at the heart of the recent turmoil; also expressed concern about sharp fluctuations in major currencies and their possible implications for economic and financial stability. The European Union is considering new rules that would force banks to set aside more capital, when they sell some of the credit products that caused the financial crisis. The Federal Reserve Bank of New York insists the U.S.financial system needs urgently stricter regulations and stronger supervision to protect against future crisis. Obama economic adviser explained that investment banks that obtain Federal Reserve Bank loans during financial crisis should face much closer regulatory scrutiny! Henry Paulson, US Treasury Secretary resumed: 'Financial markets have been reassessing risk, repricing assets and deleveraging. It took time to build up recent excesses and it will take time to work through the consequences'. The Basel Committee on Banking Supervision, which sets global standards for regulation, has underlined determination for closer risk controls on banks. However the regulatory framework Basel II is still a poorly addressed solution due to contradictions and inconsistences in its application around the world. The Federal Reserve and other US banking regulators, worried about financial markets, are also working on stricter rules for credit card issuers, prohibiting unfair practices, such as arbitrarily raising interest rates on outstanding balances. Other priority issues to deal with are the high energy prices and shortages and high prices for food, calling the World Bank for action on global food crisis. United Nations officials say the food crisis, worsened by soaring energy and food prices, could cost up to $30 Billion, emerging the impact of biofuels on food prices as a critical issue to government policies diverting food crops to energy use, and putting some nations in the difficult position to guarantee food for the poor and maintain economic growth.

Can the stagnant US economy recover and calm fears about a longer, wider and deeper worldwide economic slowdown?

Are markets self-correcting, should authorities impose stricter regulation or does a code of self-regulation of the financial institutions help to resolve finance market problems and return confidence?

Finance services and banking should set the very highest standards for ethical behaviour - Sir Evelyn de Rothschild. Do you also believe that this is something that has deteriorated in the past few years?

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Gold $954,97    07/18/08 ->tendency $1.000 per ounce ----->

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2.a) Gold

Global gold production in 2007 reached about 2.444 t (tonnes). The world's largest producing nation with 276 t was, for the first time, China, replacing South Africa which mined 'only' 272 t, in a notable steady ongoing decline in gold output, followed by the United States/255 t, Australia/251 t, Indonesia/171 t, Peru/167 t, Russia/150 t, Brazil/125 t and Canada/93 t. The largest proven and probable ore reserves are in South Africa, the United States (Nevada, Alaska, California, Colorado, New Mexico, Utah), Russia, Canada, Brazil, Ghana and Simbabwe; total reserves are estimated at 60.000 t. Of the 161.000 t ever mined, about 15% is thought to have been lost, and of the remaining 137.000 t central banks and supranational institutions hold around 32.000 t, while 105.000 t are in private hands in coin and bullion - around 22.000 t and in jewellery - around 83.000 t. Here are some official gold holdings - the United States/8.136,2 t, Germany/3.433,2 t, France/2.977,8 t, China 650 t, with record total reserves of up to $1,65 Trillion, is supposed to increase gold reserves to some 2.500 t, IMF/3.217 t, worth actually some $92 Billion, having the Group of Seven rich nations (G7) approved the sale of gold by the IMF, as part of a broad reform of its budget, raising resources by selling gold. The IMF confirmed that it will sell 403,3 t of Gold worth some $11 Billion, which is unlikely to happen until after the Presidential elections this year, in a way that would avoid to disrupting the market. The largest share of final demand at around 70%/$44 Billion, comes from jewellery, accounting India, the world's largest gold jewellery market by volume for around 555 t, followed in terms of consumption demand by the United States, the global second largest gold jewellery market with 306 t, China with 302 t, the Middle East (Saudi Arabia, Dubai), Turkey and Italy. Gold trade is a chief driver of economic diversification in the Gulf region, having Dubai imported 559 t in 2007 and re-exported 287 t into the vigorous Arab and Indian markets. The industrial and dental uses account for around 12% of gold demand, while investment demand is estimated at 18%, around $11,3 Billion. The sharp fall in South African gold output and the forthcoming sale of IMF gold may - at this time - trigger more buying interest, especially from anxious investors, private householders to defend their wealth, and the big sovereign buyers - the big central banks outside the G7 -, who want to build up their gold reserves. Gold has reinstated its age old position as the best hedge against inflationary times and increasing wealth in Brazil, India and China is contributing to leave demand outstripping mine supply. It looks as if the general fundamental outlooks for gold continue to be quite positive!

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Crude oil $130,69  per barrel - 07/18/08     (Investment Banks price forecast $150,- up to $200 a barrel, OPEC President Khelil was quoted oil price could rise as high as $170 per barrel this summer, before pulling back, while OPEC mentiones an oil price range from $113 a barrel to as high as $186 a barrel by 2030, and GAZPROM, Russia's gas monopoly, predicted oil price could hit $250 a barrel in 2009. But there are also a few predictions oil price could fall below $105 in 2009, as soon as geopolitical tensions in oil producing countries cease.)

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2.b) Oil

The soaring crude oil price reflects tight inventories, shortage of refinery capacity, nervousness about political and military tensions in oil producing nations, refiners paying record premiums for the high quality crude oil they use to produce diesel and petrol, a decrease in the Dollar's value and above all, a flood of investments especially from pension and hedge funds, flowing into commodities, including oil, viewed as an attractive alternative investment to Dollars and hedge against the weaker US-currency. OPEC reiterated that there is no need to increase output; oil supply is enough and high oil prices are not due to a shortage of crude. At $120 a barrel the world's oil bill accounts for 8% of global economic output, twice as much as it was in 2006. According to the International Energy Agency/IEA global demand in 2008 will grow about 890.000 barrels a day to 86,87 Million barrels a day with a major oil demand of nearly 5,5% from China, and slow down in 2009 increasing by 860.000 barrels a day to 87,73 Million barrels a day, reaching 89,2 Million barrels a day by 2010, coming 51,8 Million barrels a day from NON OPEC oil production and 37,4 Million barrels a day from OPEC nations, rising oil demand by 2030 to 113,3 Million barrels a day. Consumption of nations belonging to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development/OECD, like the United States, Japan, Germany and Britain, is expected to fall by 240.000 barrels a day this year. Global oil output reached 86,64 Million barrels a day in March and 86,11 Million barrels a day in April, the shortfall beeing taken out of the big inventories, about 3,5 Billion barrels in the OECD countries, which does not include China. OPEC will spend up to $160 Billion over the next four years to increase oil production capacity and is somehow worried that future oil demand might not be strong enough to justify huge investments to rise further output, increasing production cost, insisting that availability is not an issue but the real issue is deliverabilty of the required oil. The organization is considering that the current rise in oil prices is in nobody's interest and that we have to follow the evaluation of the Dollar, as the crude oil price is tied to this currency, because 1% fall in the Dollar means four Dollars more in the price of oil! Experts predict the oil market will remain tight and a nearing peak of the world oil production is going to signal at least a temporary end of cheap oil, requiring to price oil realistically to control demand.

(Million Barrels per Day)

Of the 14 countries that produced more than 2 Million barrels a day in 2007, seven were OPEC members - Saudi Arabia/8,71, Iran/3,70, United Arab Emirates/2,50, Kuwait/2,47, Venezuela/2,39, Qatar/2,12, Iraq/2,08 -. The remaining 7 NON OPEC members, including United States/8,48, were Russia/9,88, China/3,91, Mexico/3,50, Canada/3,36, Norway/2,58 and Brazil/2,29. Russia, Norway, Mexico and Kazakhstan are the world's largest NON OPEC net oil exporters. The United States/-12,24 is the world's largest net oil importer; China/-3,77 is also net oil importer, while Canada/+1,01 is a smaller net oil exporter. Canada has over 170 Billion barrels of recoverable bitumen from oil sands with today's tecnology and Alberta oil sands with an estimated total bitumen reserve between 1,7 Trillion and 2,5 Trillion barrels, more than the total OPEC oil reserves of about 900 Billion barrels, are for decades not considered part of the world's oil reserves because the oil there wasn't economically extractable at prevailing prices but could become the most important source of new oil in the world in coming years. NON OPEC oil production is expected to rise; the greatest increases were expected from Russia and Brazil, however Russia, the world's second biggest oil producer, shows actually a declining oil production, and some believe that the period of intense oil production in the oil reach western Siberia is over, fuelling concern that oil producers cannot keep up with strong Asian oil demand lead by China's continuing economic boom and India's rapid economic expansion, two nations granting fuel subsidies to ease the burden on the poorest in society, as oil production in Mexico is also slowing down, facing the state owned oil company PEMEX a cronical lack of cash and of technical capacity for deepwater exploration and production. Proven oil reserves worldwide rose slightly in 2007 to 1.237,9 Billion barrels to reach, considering the actual world consumption, for about 43 years and lasting in the Middle East at current production levels up to 93,4 years. There are increased hopes in Nigeria's offshore oil to replace disminishing worldwide reserves, while Saudi Arabia, the only OPEC member with the potential to expand oil production, put on hold any further capacity expansion plans. The world is not running out of oil! The biggest threat to the future of supplies is the lack of spare production capacity worldwide, warned Saudi Arabia's oil minister, and Libya's National Oil Corporation admitted that there was little more oil the OPEC could pump in case of a shortfall, confirming that there is not enough spare capacity to help. Shortfalls are caused by oil rich countries such as Nigeria, Kuwait, Venezuela, Iran and Iraq, where politics has stymied production growth. Oil rich Nigeria, where rebels are attacking oil wells and pipelines, and Iran, because of its nuclear program and concerns to stop the country from producing bomb-grade uranium, are the lingering hotspots the markets are actually focusing on, worried also about Iraqui's oil exports through the north of the country hit by renewed crossborder raids by Turkish forces against Kurdish insurgents. Saudi Arabia suggested that the United States, where no new oil refineries have been built in 30 years, should expand refining capacity, as additional expansion of oil refining capacity is needed worldwide, and could go more aggressively for domestic exploration. Bush lifted presidential ban on offshore oil drilling to ease dependence on crude imports, what would not guarantee any additional oil for as much as seven years, and in any case there is no immediate practical effect as Congress enacted its own prohibition on offshore drilling in 1981. It seems that today's oil prices are influenced more by opinions and predictions from brokers and investment banks, focusing on perceived risks to future oil supplies and the growth in oil demand from emerging economies, having moved away from the nearly unchanged market fundamentals, and stock exchange oil tradings exceed 17 times the real world crude demand! However the key problem remains the same: the inability of global oil supply to catch up with rising demand; global demand, led by China, criticised for its fuel subsidies, but raising now cost of gasoline and diesel by 17%/18% respectively, is expanding strongly, accounting China for almost a third of the world's annual demand increase, and world supply not. Rising cost of fuel is producing protests all over the world and crude prices hitting new trading records dominated the G8 meeting in Japan,  multiplying fears global economy could be harmed by soaring oil prices, driving up inflation with the risk of social tensions forcing countries to look for alterntive fuel sources, and the 5 key energy-consuming nations, the United States, China, Japan, India and South Korea called again on oil producers to increase output to try to control oil prices. OPEC said no decision will be made until the next meeting in Vienna on September 9, however Saudi Arabia, the world's biggest oil exporter, is completing development of its giant Khursaniyah field soon, increasing its output capacity by up to 500.000 barrels a day and is willing to bring production and supplies from actually 9.450.000 barrels a day, already 300.00 barrels a day higher since last month, to a total of 9,7 Million barrels a day in July, or more if the market requires it! The kingdom, complying with a huge expansion program in its oil industry to increase its spare oil production capacity to up to 12,5 Million barrels a day by the end of 2009, said at a meeting with important producers and consumers on Sunday in Jeddah, it is capable to boost this level another 2,5 Million barrels a day to 15 Million barrels a day if needed. Saudi Arabia is concerned today's record prices might damp economic growth and lead to a lower oil demand, improving countries their energy efficiency, developing alternative sources of energy, including nuclear power. Saud Arabia wants oil price stability in the global market, a fair oil price not hurting producers neither consumers, and is worried about harmony between buyers and sellers, asking consumer countries to take measures to control and stop speculations in the futures markets to bring oil prices down from the actual unreasonable high levels. The king called on OPEC to pledge $1 Billion to help developing nations with the effect of high energy prices, also offering an additional $500 Million in soft loans from Saudi Arabia. However the fresh oil offered by Saudi Arabia is less than expected and does not offset the recent output losses in Nigeria caused by attacks on production facilities, contributing only little to calm market concerns. Oil prices jumped above $140 a barrel as Libya said it is studying options to cut output in response to possible US legal actions against producer countries reducing oil production, arguing the market is well supplied and demand will drop due to warmer temperatures in energy hungry Europe and the United States. OPEC president Khelil favours cutting oil output, so do Algeria, Iran and Venezuela. Iraq, with the world's third largest oil reserves, is opening its giant key producing oilfields to Britsh and US companies to restore its oil infrastructure and to raise output from the actual level of 2,5 Million barrels per day by a combined 1,5 Million barrels per day.

visit my blogs on energy (in spanish): http://petroleo1.blogspot.com/ on China (in german): http://chinaheute.blogspot.com/ and on Russia (in english) http://russia4you.blogspot.com/

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2.c) Sovereign Wealth Funds/SWF

SWF, government-backed investment vehicles, have proliferated in recent years thanks to high oil prices and surging Asian Exports, to a total worth of about $3 Trillion, but growing fast while amassing enormeous currency reserves. There is concern about investments compromising financial stability and sensitive sectors, such as energy or defense. However host countries and SWF see that their interest lies in building confidence and the behavior of Sovereign Wealth Funds has been so far without fail! Reserves in China reached $1,81 Trillion corresponding to about 1/2 of China's GDP and in Russia $500 Billion or 1/3 of Russia's GDP and there is pressure that China and also Russia, both keen to protect their exporters, should appreciate their exchange rates faster to reduce inflation, which would slow down accumulation of reserves. China and Russia have established important SWF, while Japan, with the world's second largest foreign exchange reserves, which reached $1,01 Trillion, has not yet a SWF. The IMF will exercise its own judgement as to whether a country is in breach of the requirement not to undertake currency manipulation for trade advantage, creating also a code of 'best practices' to guide SWF, - expecting SWF from the countries that are getting the funds money to accept the same rules and avoiding over-regulations! The US launched an 'Invest in America' programme and wants that the Group of Eight rich countries (G8) leads by example, saying to review a transaction on other grounds than national security is unhelpful and unproductive! US GDB is about $12 Trillion, the total value of traded securities (debt and equity) denominated in Dollar is estimated to be more than $53 Trillion, and the global value of traded securities is about $165 Trillion. Total assets under management by private hedge funds, a broad category of private investments funds that seek high returns, and as consequence often take on considerable risks, posing also a certain risk to the global financial system, are estimated to be around $2 Trillion. Combined the top 50 hedge fund managers in 2007 earned $29 Billion, John Paulson of Paulson & Company earned $3,7 Billion, followed by the hedge fund managers James H.Simons and George Soros each earning almost $3 Billion. In that context $3 Trillion and more worth of SWF is quite significant but not so huge. Important sovereign wealth generator are China, Russia and Kuwait, and over the past 5 years the fastest growers have been Nigeria, Oman, Kazakhstan, Angola, Russia and Brazil. Abu Dhabi, the oil-rich Emirate of the Gulf region, has actually the largest Sovereign Wealth Fund, the Abu Dhabi Investment Authority/ADIA with around $900 Billion and Abu Dhabi is today the world's richest city! A number of Middle East investors is not interested to invest outside the region, as local real estate investments and infrastructure investments are giving higher returns than foreign investments and Middle Eastern investors have been repatriating their assets, reinvesting especially into the Gulf region's spectacular mega projects. Due to high oil prices the fundamentals of Gulf economies are strong and they are set for a period of sustained economic growth in the short and medium term; there is a rise in foreign investments into regional markets, leaving volatile western markets, to benefit from local outperforming price/earning ratios. Singapore's GIC, one of the largest SWF, warns that we could be facing a recession which is longer, deeper and wider than any recession that we have encountered in the last 30 years and considers its investments in UBS and Citibank as long-term investments with good returns when markets stabilise again. Important sovereign wealth funds in China and the Middle East are reducing there exposure to the Dollar increasingly concerned about the currency!

Sovereign Wealth Funds/SWF - Listing & Updates & Deals & Related Investors: http://swfmoney.blogspot.com/

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3. Globalization

Can globalization help to reduce effects of recession? Sure, however there are social and economic costs to globalization. Trade liberalisation rewards competitive industries and penalizes uncompetitive ones, and foments greater movement of people, goods, capital and ideas due to increased economic integration, which in turn is propelled by increased trade and investment. Global income is more than $31 trillion/year, but 1,2 billion people of the world's population earn less than $1,- a day and 80% of the global population earn only 20% of this global income, existing in many countries a large gap between rich and poor. The 3 billion people living in 24 developing countries that increased their integration into the world economy enjoyed an average 5% growth rate in income per capita, longer live expectancy and better schooling. The digital and information revolution has changed the world's learns, communicates, doing business and treats illnesses. Globalization has helped reduce poverty in a large number of developing countries, but too many nations and people have been left out. Important reasons for this exclusion are weak governance and policies in the non-integrating countries, tariffs and other barriers that poor countries and poor people face in accessing rich country markets and declining development assistance! But that does not justify a retreat to nationalism and protectionism, which leads to deaper poverty and is fundamentally hostile to the well-being of people in the developing nations! The challenge is to make globalization work for all, including the poor people of the world! Pope Benedict XVI called for globalization of social and economic justice!

Can globalization, an increasingly interconnected world, the international marketplace, with a greater transparency produce more global stability, reducing vulnerability to crisis?

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4. Global Warming

As interdependence increases worldwide economically and politically taking effect globalization, humankind is called to deal with priority issues, such as the greenhouse effect. The greenhouse gases that have already been put into atmosphere threaten the survival of many ecosystems and wildlife species. The dramatic change in West Antarctic Ice could produce a significant rise in global sea levels; Antarctic ice sheet is melting rapidly, as much as 36 cubic miles of ice a year. The continued greenhouse effect is an effect caused by greenhouse gases, such as carbon dioxide, nitrogen oxide and methane, that cause infrared radiation to be hindered when escaping the earth's atmosphere. Sea level rise, warming temperatures, uncertain effect on forest and agricultural systems, and increased variability and volatility in weather patterns are expected to have a significant and disproportional impact in the developing world, where the world's poor remain susceptible to potential damages and uncertainties inherent to a changing climate. Going oil and gas prices up, reliance on coal is rising especially in China, India and the United Sates, meaning that global emissions of carbon dioxide will increase and there is little hope of averting the worst effects on climate change! Wasting many years denying the real threat of global climate change, the Bush Administration, obliged by court order, released a report about global warming and it's harmful impact in the United States! John McCain, presumtive Republican nominee, calls for a mandatory limit on greenhouse gas emissions in the United States and Obama, the Democratic candidate, is also strongly supporting plans for a clean energy future, increasing investments in renewable fuels, and considers climate change as one of the greatest moral challenges of our generation! The Kyoto protocol, ratified by over 166 countries, but not by the Bush Administration, entered into force in February 2005 and is due to end in 2012, and the US, mayor developing countries and big polluters like Brazil, China and India become fully engaged in signing up to a post-2012 agreement, centred on the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change/UNFCCC,  which is scheduled to finish in late 2009, having G8 leaders agreed to consider and adopt the goal of achieving at least 50% reduction of global emission by 2050, but not yet assuming any short term commitments. British Prime Minister Gordon Brown listed climate change to the greatest threats to Britain's peace, as are war, terrorism, disease and poverty. Lights were switched off across Australia last night at 8pm for Earth Hour, drawing mixed results and reviews. Earth Hour aims to raise environmental awareness - of global warming - by encouraging homes and businesses to turn off their lights for one hour. San Francisco and Phoenix and Canada's Vancouver will switch off at 2pm today, while other cities in 35 nations are following. The poorer countries are calling on industrialized nations to guarantee financial help to adapt to the impact of climate change. Only up to $300 Million annually will be available through a U.N. adaption fund with a maximum of $1,5 Billion a year, which is much less than the $86 Billion the U.N. Development Program estimates is needed annually by 2015. The US, Japan and Britain said they will contribute to a clean technology fund, administered by the World Bank, that will dole out $5 to 10 Billion over three to five years, starting operations in July 2008. Pope Benedict XVI said the world needed to care for the environment, but not to the point where the welfare of animals and plants was given a greater priority than that of mankind, attacking climate change prophets of doom, warning that any solution to global warming must be based on firm evidence and on an agreement of sustainable development capable of ensuring the well-being of all while respecting environmental balances. According to the International Energy Agency/IEA the world needs to invest about $45 Trillion in energy in coming decades, build some 1.400 nuclear power plants and vastly expand wind power in order to halve greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 and prevent energy shortages, within a new global energy revolution, transforming the way we produce and use energy.

Is it too late to stop climate change?

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5. His Holiness Pope Benedict XVI Joseph Ratzinger

Faith is Hope. Holy Mary, mother of God, our Mother, teach us to belief, to hope, to love with you. I invoke God's blessing of joy and peace. One can only be a Christian in the Church, not beside the Church! I invite you to observe how the Holy Spirit is the highest gift of God to humankind, and therefore is the supreme testimony of his love for us. I invite you to give time to prayer and to your spiritual formation. Lead others to love Jesus more and more and that you may follow him faithfully. Everything collapses if truth is missing. These are just some prayers, blessings and statements by Pope Benedict, who has developed an intense scientific activity. Many publications constitute a point of reference for many people, specially for those interested in entering deeper into the study of theology. In his usual clarity he made notable contributions to Church and to the Christian Society. He is the teacher, the thinker and the ponderer of deepest meanings. People came to see Pope Paul II and they come to hear Pope Benedict XVI. The Vatican announced that Pope Benedict will meet with Muslim religious leaders and scholars at a Catholic-Muslim forum in Rome later this year, explaining that the Church is eager to improve relations with moderate Islam. Many Muslims remain wary, saying the Pope has created the impression that he is insensitive to their faith. Followers of Islam increased in such an extraordinary way that today 19,2% of the world population is Muslim, while 17,4% is catholic, representing until now the most important religion. King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia said we have lost sincerity, morals, fidelity and attachment to our religions and to humanity, deploring the desintegration of the family and the rise of atheism in the world, a frightening phenomenon that all religions must confront and vanquish, and calls for dialogue among monotheistic religions, project which the King discussed with Pope Benedict XVI during his landmark visit to the Vatican late last year. Pope Benedict XVI visits US, as he views the United States as essential 'battleground' in what he considers the 'war' of today's era - proving that modernity doesn't have to stamp out religious faith! Faith and work of the Church in our society is important to us all! US President George W. Bush sees the Pope as a powerful moral figure and received him as head of state and friend. Pope Benedict XVI spoke of his affection for America, a land of hope and opportunity for millions across the world, and offered his support to strengthen the United Nations, where he has promoted human rights as basis for ending war and poverty!

Is the Catholic Church getting more efficiently involved in world affairs as to achieve a better understanding with other important religions helping to ease political tensions?

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The only issue I suppose is that either we are going to end up with so many environmentally focussed days and hours that people will start to become a bit indundated with it. I mean really, how many times can you hold an enviro party or sit there with all your lights off?

Also don't you think that everyday is Earth Day? I know that's a bit like the excuse that blokes use on Valentine's Day when they have neglected to buy the card and flowers...'Darling every day is Valentine's Day for us'....Hopefully Earth Day, like Earth Hour did over here in Australia, is getting a whole bunch of people who are maybe only vaguely interested in climate change to take some notice?

by Terry Townsend,
Managing Editor, Links

I’m sure everybody here is aware of the basic facts of global warming and the likely consequences if rapid and serious action is not taken. There is virtually unanimous agreement among scientists and activists, and increasingly among millions of ordinary people, about the degree of the problem and the time frame we have to make fundamental changes to address it.

The main “solutions” being offered by the capitalist class, its politicians and the corporate-dominated mass media — and endorsed by some key peak environmental organizations — are consciously designed to shift the responsibility for, and the major costs of, addressing global warming away from the most polluting corporations and to preserve the basic structure and mechanisms of Western capitalist economies. They are also designed to delay the necessary political, economic and social changes for as long as possible, and to keep them to the minimum that are compatible (in their assessment) with both the survival of capitalist society and ameliorating the worst of climate change.

This is why major-party politicians and the corporate media — and again unfortunately some peak environment groups – do not place serious demands on big business, but endorse — even celebrate — big business’ preferred measures of emissions trading, “green” taxes, carbon offsetting projects in the Third World and capitalism-friendly publicly subsidized techno-fixes such as so-called clean coal and agro-fuels.

These false “solutions” are not only inadequate, they are counterproductive. However, since other speakers and workshops will be focusing on those, I’ll concentrate on another of the establishment’s favoured — and ultimately also counterproductive — “solution” — one that is intertwined with the others. The push for all individuals to voluntarily consume a little less, and “buy green” whenever they can. That the answer to global warming is for all of “us” — consumers, workers, residents, pensioners — to voluntarily change our wasteful behaviour.

Despite its benign aura of commonsense advice, this is a massive ideological campaign to drive home to “us” that it is ordinary working people who are ultimately to blame for climate change, and that it is “us who must pay for its solution. It is part of the ruling class’ overall offensive to shift the blame and cost of addressing global warming away from itself and its intrinsically environmentally destructive economic and social system.

As one commentator aptly noted in the usually system-friendly Grist e-zine “every time an activist or politician hectors the public to voluntarily reach for a new [fluro] bulb or spend extra on a Prius, Exxon Mobil heaves a big sigh of relief,” because it diverts people’s attention from what is really necessary to address the crisis, and from who is really responsible.

Death by a thousand tips

Another radical commentator, George Marshall, has described this ideological offensive as “death [by] a thousand tips.” He is referring to the literally tens of thousands of newspaper articles and web pages that, after having outlined the severe crisis we face and the sharply diminishing time society has to respond, direct the reader to a snappy, upbeat sidebar or list entitled “10 easy tips to save the planet” or some variation thereof. The same sort of lists have been the core of government-sponsored campaigns across the globe, including Australia.

Standard items include “change your light globes,” “turn off unnecessary lights,” “don’t leave your appliances on stand-by,” “adjust your thermostats,” recycle, compost, drive a fuel-efficient car, or drive less. Yet extremely rarely do these helpful hints mention political action, let alone make concrete demands on governments or business. On the odd occasion they do, it is vague and tokenistic – and tacked onto the end of the list.

Of course, there is a place for action by individuals, and it should not be discouraged. It does make sense in terms of saving energy and water, reducing waste and saving money. Educating and facilitating such behaviour on a mass scale is a significant part of what is needed to halt global warming. But such suggestions should not be counterposed to, or used to drown out calls for, the urgent need for mass political action to force the necessary cuts to emission demanded by the science. And they should not be cynically presented, as they are by the corporate media and capitalist politicians, as the way to save the planet.

In Britain, the government spent £22 million on a “Do your bit” campaign and had to admit that it produced no measurable change in personal habits. A poll in 2007 indicated that this campaign had miseducated people, with more than 40% saying that recycling household waste — which would result in a relatively small reduction of emissions — was the most important thing they could do. Only 10% nominated the far more effective regular use of public transport.

That £22 million would have been better spent to organize a movement to demand an end to the massive and wasteful packaging and advertising industries, or the mass expansion of public transport.

In Ireland, faced with greenhouse gas emissions that have increased 25% since 1990, the government’s response was to launch a multimillion euro “The Power on One” campaign, which provides — yes, you guessed it — “10 top tips” to “make a difference.” Among the revolutionary actions suggested were: don’t overfill your kettle, but fill your dishwasher before use, and unplug your mobile phone charger.

As George Marshall quips, all “that sounds much nicer than curtailing road building or industrial growth. They are not called `easy tips’ for nothing.”

On October 15, the UN Environment Program organised a “Blog Action Day” in which some 15,000 blog sites offered more “tips” to web surfers, from the inevitable changing light globes to one of Copyblogger.com’s “tiny actions [that] can save the world”: quit your job requiring a long commute and start up a home-based business! Copyblogger’s not alone in making “tips” that are simply beyond the means of most debt-strapped working people in these days of widespread “mortgage stress” and rising interest rates. Common “tips” include buying more expensive hybrid cars and building architect-designed “carbon neutral” houses.

Blaming working people

All such campaigns are premised on blaming working people for global warming. But as Dave Holmes, a veteran Australian socialist, points out in the latest Green Left Weekly, what real choice to do the mass of ordinary people have:

“the source of our current crisis is quite specific: it is the operations of modern capitalism. The drive for profits by the giant corporations has been relentless and has been pursued in complete disregard of any impact on the environment.

“The fundamental conditions under which we live — how we generate our power, how we get around, how our food is grown, etc. — are not decided by us but rather by the big corporations that control society’s means of production. Without the rule of corporate capital we could set in place radically different and ecologically sustainable arrangements.

“For example, the cars which most of us use are a significant source of greenhouse gas emissions…The favouring of private motor vehicles over public transport hasn’t come about because we are innately a society of petrol-heads but is a consequence of the deliberate policies of a succession of capitalist governments loyally protecting the interests of their big business masters. The auto industry and its associated sectors make up a very large part of each national capitalist economy.”

However well intentioned, appeals to people to change their individual habits bring trivial results when measured against the problem, and if not coupled to the much more urgent task of politically mobilizing to demand serious government action to immediately reduce and rapidly halt greenhouse gas emissions, it derails mass concern about global warming from taking a political road.

The Earth Hour Greenwash

It also sells the damaging lie that “clean,” “green,” “natural” and “organic” commodities are the answer, when they are fundamentally no better for the planet than any other over-produced commodities under capitalism. It plays into the hands of the mega-financed “Greenwashing” by corporations and governments of an unsustainable economic system.

If anything sums up this sort of operation, it was the massively publicized “Earth Hour” on March 29. The brainchild in 2007 of the World Wildlife Fund, Fairfax newspapers and the Leo Burnett advertising agency, Earth Hour declares on its website: “Created to take a stand against the greatest threat our planet has ever faced, Earth Hour uses the simple action of turning off the lights for one hour to deliver a powerful message about the need for action on global warming.” But you will search in vain for any demands for political action, just boilerplate “tips.” It states:

“Earth Hour is the highlight of a major campaign to encourage businesses, communities and individuals to take the simple steps needed to cut their emissions on an ongoing basis. It is about simple changes that will collectively make a difference — from businesses turning off their lights when their offices are empty to households turning off appliances rather than leaving them on standby.”

There was more of the same in the 40-page, full-colour Earth Hour Magazine that was distributed “free” (free that is if you don’t consider the small forest and who knows how many tonnes of CO2 that were expended in its production and distribution) with the approximate 211,000 copies of the Sydney Morning Herald on March 17. Only one article, by Tim Flannery, made any serious attempt to point out the vested interests that need to be tackled and raised the issues of inadequate public transport, stopping new coal plants and setting adequate emission-reduction targets by 2050.

But his contribution was buried under an avalanche of yet more regurgitated “tips,” feel-good stories and gumph such as this:

“Many governments and communities have already made big changes to reduce emissions. The use of solar and wind power is on the increase. Other renewable energy sources are being investigated. Millions of dollars are being spent exploring ways to bury carbon dioxide or to produce cleaner coal. But more needs to be done and politicians need to be brave enough to make tough decisions. If those politicians know that a couple of million people in their homeland have joined Earth Hour, they can be confident that the people will support the hard decisions and will applaud leaders who have the will to act.”

Don’t expect Fairfax to support “hard decisions” that impact on the big end of town, though. “Hard decisions” is code for making you and me pay higher bills.

The supplement was festooned with full-page ads by electricity suppliers such as EnergyAustralia, Integral Energy and Country Energy — the ones that hawk all that coal power — car companies such as Toyota, Fiat and Hyundai (Volvo waited for 8-page post-Earth Hour “Souvenir edition” Sydney Morning Herald), and even Cascade beer (100% Carbon Offset!).

Corporate and government “greenwashing” was the central goal of the pre-hour hullabaloo. For all the talk of millions of Australians taking part, almost the sole yardstick of the night’s success was on corporate office blocks and huge neon advertising signs in the CBD switching off. The participation of major publicly owned landmarks is really what made the impact. Which begs the question, why aren’t all these lights and signs switched off every night?

Fossil fuel giant AGL loaned the giant WWF-logoed hot air balloon, which sailed over several capital cities beforehand, producing an estimated 378 kilograms of CO2 an hour. That’s the same AGL that is a shareholder in Victoria’s largest brown coal mine. Richard Branson gave his grin of approval, ever keen to “offset” the impact of his fleet of 38 747s. BP — the world’s third largest global energy company — also promised to turn off all its “non-essential lighting.” Let’s not mention that BP was named one of the “ten worst corporations” in both 2001 and 2005 based on its environmental and human rights records. Or that it is busy trying to mine the ultra-polluting tar sands oil in Canada.

McDonald’s turned off it Golden Arches for an hour nationally! So the literally millions on tonnes of useless packaging produced by this lot, not to mention the clearing of Amazonian rainforest for beef for Maccas, is forgiven. Not surprisingly, Channel Nine’s support did not extend to urging people to switch of the tellie or to refusing to air the ads of CO2 polluters. Behind the scenes, advertising industry magazine Campaign Brief in league with the SMH offered an incentive to copywriters who “demonstrate the most effective and/or inspirational way to leverage Earth Hour 2008” — two return trips to Cannes in France!

And last but certainly not least, the eco-friendly Department of Defence signed up to participate in Earth Hour. Federal Labor defence minister Joel Fitzgibbon announced: “Defence takes its obligations to reduce greenhouse gas emissions seriously and will have over 1330 buildings across Australia participating in Earth Hour.” The minister of war also reported that the department had launched the Combat Climate Change initiative (clever pun) to provide information and “tips” to defence staff in the “workplace” and home to reduce energy use. Here’s a “tip” Joel: get all troops out of Iraq and Afghanistan, and end all support for those wars for US imperialist control of energy sources.

In the end, despite the hype and PR, the results were hardly impressive. In the hour, electricity consumption across whole city and the Illawarra dropped just 2-3%, while in the CBD it was just over 8%. Nationwide figures put the drop at 3.6%. Based on a survey of 3000, WWF claimed 59% of Sydneysiders took part — a figure that doesn’t gel with the marginal power drop, if simply turning off lights is the way forward.

Anyway, it seems that the WWF and Fairfax were not going to let their advertisers down and were going to declare the night a success whatever the result. The Online Fairfax-owned Brisbane Times reported that “Brisbane made history this evening with the city’s first official Earth Hour going off without a hitch. Kellie Caught, of Earth Hour organiser World Wildlife Fund, said she was thrilled with the response.” Only problem was, this was published on March 28, 26 hours before Earth Hour had even taken place!

The last word on Earth Hour should go to Jimmy Yan, a member of the Glen Waverley Secondary College Eco-Committee, whose excellent critique was carried on the committee’s blog:

“Earth Hour rests on the assumption that the environmental movement can make any real progress without looking at the deeper social and political institutions and systems within our society that cause our environmental problems, one of them being a system that seeks to accumulate as much profit as possible for the sake of more accumulation and more competition irrespective of the human, environmental and social cost. Our environmental problems become another commodity that is bought and sold on the market …

“Ultimately, events like Earth Hour … rest on the idea that we can trust and work with those responsible for environmental destruction without holding them accountable for their crimes and the assumption that ordinary people are too stupid and naive to go beyond just turning off their lights for one hour.”

Mass movement needed

We have to convince millions of people and build a mass movement for emission-reductions that genuinely address the real problem. For Australia, that’s at least 90% by 2030 — not Labor’s anaemic 60% by 2050. A movement that demands that governments impose far-reaching measures that force giant industrial polluters to rapidly and massively slash their emissions, at the risk of massive fines. And if they refuse, they should be nationalized and run in the interests of the workers and consumers.

All public subsidies and tax concessions for the giant fossil fuel industries and resource corporations — which amount to billions — should be redirected to research the development of publicly owned renewable energy sources. We could help ordinary people implement individual actions, by supplying free or at a massive subsidy to all households solar waters heaters and water tanks. There should be a massive reorganization of society to move away from private-car-based transportation to free and frequent mass public transport, and, redesign our cities to put people’s homes close to work and shops.

We need to think about ways of linking these wider demands with our more immediate campaigns, for example as we fight to stop the Tasmanian pulp mill, oppose power privatization, end coal and uranium mining, and to stop the building of new freeways and toll roads, we have to also convince people that the workings of capitalism itself is both responsible for the crisis and also the main obstacle to its solution.

The real source of the problem

Through struggles for immediate and broader demands, masses of people can come to understand that the source of the problem lies with capitalism itself.

The scientific analysis of capitalism first made by Karl Marx and Friedrich Engels, illustrates how, despite the assertions of many environmental movement theorists over the years, Marxism not only provides essential insights into the fundamental cause of the environmental crisis ,but also offers a political guide to its solution.

Capitalism’s fundamentally anti-ecological trait is captured by Marx’s analysis of the working of capitalism. Capitalists buy or produce commodities only in order to sell them for a profit, and then buy or produce yet more to sell more again. There is no end to the process. Competition between capitalists ensures that each one must continue to increase their production of commodities and continue to expand in order to survive. Production tends to expand exponentially until interrupted by crises (depressions and wars) and it is this dynamic at the very core of capitalism that places enormous, unsustainable pressure on the environment.

Capitalism is a system that pursues growth for its own sake, whatever the consequences. This is why all schemes based on the hope of a no-growth, slow-growth or a sustainable-growth forms of capitalism are pipe dreams. As too are strategies based on a critical mass of individual consumers deciding to go “green” in order to reform the system.

People are not “consumers” by nature. A multi-billion-dollar capitalist industry called advertising constantly plays with our minds to convince us that happiness comes only through buying more and more “stuff,” to keep up with endless wasteful fads, fashions, upgrades, new models and built-in obsolescence. The desire for destructive and/or pointless goods is manufactured along with them. In 2008, an estimated $750 billion will be spent on corporate advertising and public relations in the US alone. In Australia, such spending is now well in excess of $12 billion a year.

Many in the environmental movement argue that with the right mix of taxes, incentives and regulations, everybody could be winners. Big business would have cheaper, more efficient production techniques, and therefore be more profitable, and consumers would have more environment-friendly products and energy sources.

In a rational society, such innovations would lower the overall environmental impact of production. Unfortunately, we don’t live in a rational society. Any energy and money savings made through efficiency are used to make and sell more commodities, cheaper than their competitors.

Capitalism approaches technology — in the production process or in the final product — in the same way as it does everything else. What will generate the most profits? Whether it is efficient, clean, safe, environmentally benign or rational has little to do with it. The technologies that could tackle global warming have long existed. Even though research into them has been massively underfunded, renewable energy sources are today competitive with coal and nuclear power (if the negative social and environmental costs are factored in). Public transport systems have been around since the late 1800s.

Fundamental to capitalism’s development has been its power to shift the cost of its ecological and social vandalism onto society as whole. More profits can accrue if the big capitalists don’t have to bother themselves with the elimination, neutralization or recycling of industrial wastes. It’s much cheaper to pour toxic waste into the air or the nearest river. Rather than pay for the real costs of production, society as a whole subsidizes corporate profit-making by cleaning up some of the mess or suffering the environmental and/or health costs. Or the whole messy business can simply be exported to the Third World.

It is becoming abundantly clear that the Earth cannot sustain this system’s plundering and poisoning without the humanity sooner or later experiencing a complete ecological catastrophe.

To have any chance of preventing this, within the 10- to 30-year window that we have in relation to global warming, humanity must take conscious, rational control of its interactions with the planet and its ecological processes, in ways that capitalism is inherently incapable of doing.

While organizers of the event correctly pointed out that Earth Hour was mostly about raising awareness, that didn't stop proud proclamations about drops in electricity demand during that hour. Some reports showed electricity demand was down 8.7 per cent for Toronto and 3.5 per cent in Vancouver.

The inconvenient truth, however, is that despite falling energy use, CO2 emissions actually rose during Earth Hour relative to comparable days in the past three years.

The flaw of Earth Hour's publicity campaign is that it fell into the fallacy of equating energy use with greenhouse gas emissions. The two are indeed related, but the relationship is more complex than the simple act of flicking the light switch would suggest.

Turning off a light bulb does not in itself reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Whether or not using electricity produces greenhouse gases depends on which kind of power plant is providing the electricity. If the power grid is predominantly being powered by nuclear fuel or hydroelectricity, there will be little greenhouse gas produced. However, if the power is coming from a coal-fired plant, there will be much more greenhouse gas produced.

In Ontario, power predominantly comes from a mix of nuclear, coal or hydroelectric power while in British Columbia and Quebec over 90 per cent of power comes from clean hydroelectricity. For every megawatt-hour of electricity produced from a coal power plant, a little over 1 tonne of CO2 is emitted.

When comparing power or electricity demand across days, it is important to control for things like weather, the amount of daylight, how many nuclear reactors are running and other possible factors. Using more than four years of hourly data, I estimated how much power would be expected to come from each source, and electricity consumption in each region of Ontario.

-- Heather Dobson

]]> http://candombera.wordpress.com/?p=101 Thu, 10 Apr 2008 12:28:08 +0000 candombera http://candombera.wordpress.com/?p=101 El sábado 29 de marzo en Sydney y en otras tantas ciudades del mundo, se llevó a cabo Earth Hour.
Earth Hour o La hora del Planeta Tierra es un campaña que se inició en Sydney en el 2007 y consiste en difundir los peligros del calentamiento global, para que el mundo tome conciencia y genere cambios al respecto.

Ese día la consigna fue apagar las luces y todo elemento de consumo eléctrico por 1 hora, desde las 8 hasta las 9 de la noche. Con este gesto, además de ahorrar energía, la gente se compromete a generar pequeños cambios en su vida cotidiana, que ayuden a prevenir el calentamiento global.

Entonces pensé: que mejor noche para ir al observatorio, cuando la mayoría de las luces urbanas están apagadas, y poder ver el cielo como debe ser.

Quedamos con unos amigos en encontrarnos en la puerta. Llegué antes, como siempre. El observatorio de Sydney está arriba de una loma y tiene un parque con vistas alucinantes de la ciudad.

Lo que más me emocionaba de la idea era recordar mis viejas épocas de estudiante de Astronomía en la Facultad de La Plata. Cuántos años han pasado!

De chica nunca supe qué quería ser. Terminé el colegio con 4 opciones, exactas y humanísticas, y… dónde voy? Hasta que leí un libro de Carl Sagan llamado “Contacto” que me conmovió y me hizo pensar: quiero ser astrónoma.

Por supuesto mi paso por la carrera fue efímero. A los 6 meses ya había decidido que no era para mi. Cursábamos todos los días mañana y tarde, y de vez en cuando alguna noche teníamos observaciones en telescopio.

Recuerdo la clase de Álgebra los lunes a las 8 de la mañana, aprendiendo lógica cartesiana. También me acuerdo del profesor de análisis matemático diciendo: “las funciones son como una vivorita…”.

Al principio de todo tuve la ilusión de que la Matemática tenia una mística propia, y había llegado a mi vida para poner un poco de orden. Pero ay! que loca está la gente en la facu de Exactas.

Poco a poco empecé a darme cuenta de que la Matemática me estaba anulando la capacidad de sentir. Hablábamos de constantes, funciones, raíces cúbicas todos los días, cocinando, viajando en el bus. Nada era como antes. Una puesta de sol era una suma de partículas atómicas, las cosas perdían su magia para transformarse en científicas.

En ese entonces otro libro iluminador llegó a mis manos: “Uno y el universo” de Ernesto Sábato. Lo devoré y me sentí identificada con cada frase del libro. Lloré, pataleé y me cuestioné: que estoy haciendo acá? Este mundo no me pertenece.

Creí que la Astronomía era romántica, pero no. Abandoné a tiempo, y tomé otros rumbos.

Diecisiete años después (ay… tantos?) quise recuperar esa sensación de mirar un cielo abierto en una noche sin luces.

Pero como siempre, Ley de Murphy presente, todo lo que quieras que ocurra, no ocurrirá. El día había empezado espléndido, y 15 minutos antes de que abrieran las puertas del observatorio, se larga un chaparrón con todo.

La gente hacía cola y se preguntaba: nos vamos o nos quedamos. Yo quería mantener el espíritu alto y pensaba: son 4 gotas, ya va a parar. Pero cada vez llovía más fuerte, y mis amigos que no venían!

En eso un viejo que estaba solo, se me acerca a hablar. Necesitaba consenso para irse o quedarse. Me dice que cree que se vuelve, porque pagar la entrada para ver esas películas estúpidas que pasan, no le interesa. Intento transmitirle mi fe de que ya va a parar, que hoy es la noche para ver el cielo, y que como no vine nunca al observatorio, me voy a quedar hasta que pare, porque además estoy esperando a unos amigos.

El hombre se pone a contarme de los telescopios del observatorio, el diámetro, si es refractor, los objetos celestes que vio… Hago como que me interesa la conversación, pero me suena el teléfono y me pongo a hablar con Daniela que me dice que está en camino, y viste como llueve, no lo puedo creer.

El tipo se da cuenta que estoy hablando en Castellano, y me pregunta: sos española? No –le digo- soy argentina. Ahhh… -me dice- allá tienen casi las mismas estrellas que nosotros. A qué latitud está Buenos Aires?

Me dio vergüenza que habiendo sido estudiante de Astronomía, no sabía la latitud de Buenos Aires. Y lo peor era que tampoco me interesaba, así que le dije: no tengo ni ideaaaaaaaaaaa. A lo lejos vi que venían caminando bajo el paraguas Yanina y Steve, por fin! Alguien que me salve de este sujeto!

Mientras tanto el hombre, que no se bancaba no saber la latitud de Buenos Aires, sacó el móvil ultimo modelo y dijo: voy a buscarlo en Google.

Por suerte mis amigos llegaron a tiempo para rescatarme del plomaso, y entramos al observatorio. Mientras llovió vimos una peli 3D sobre un posible viaje de vacaciones a Marte.

Y después paró. Había varios telescopios en el parque, y aunque estuvo nublado, igual pudimos ver: la constelación de Orión, la estrella Alfa del centauro, y Marte, con las luces de la ciudad apagadas.

Y para terminar la noche, nos fuimos a un pub alemán a tomarnos unas buenas cervezas, acompañadas con salchichas con chukrut… ay… eso sí que es romántico!

Okay, so we've heard it all, and we know nothing. Is global warming a result of human-induced pollution or simply the natural ebb and flow of the earth's cycle? Ought we modify our terminology from "global warming" to "climate change" like the Republican party in 2003 (see "Giving Us What We Want"), and does that bring clarity to the issue, or more confusion? And what about all the other environmental concerns that are tangential to the big one of warming.

In the Evangelical community there is no agreement. Many, mostly younger Christians take seriously Genesis 2:15, that ADAM (humanity) was placed in the Garden of Eden to "work it and take care of it," which when interpreted into contemporary praxis means to minimize your footprint on the world so as to protect the Creation. Those on the Conservative Christian Right believe that the science is in question, and attending to this issue distracts from the real issues of Abortion and Gay-Rights. (I don't see these two being reconciled any time soon).

Regardless, the Time article on "Earth Hour" had a snippet that highlighted a characteristic of humanity that is well worth extracting for comment and reflection that everyone ought to take into consideration:

Carter Roberts, head of the World Wildlife Fund (WWF), which sponsored Earth Hour, said the global event was designed to "make a statement about our commitment to solve the climate change problem and symbolize the commitment that people will make throughout the rest of the year." ... What was the point? As Roberts himself noted, the energy saved by turning off the lights for an hour "won't make an enormous difference." So, if it won't cut carbon emissions, why bother then with Earth Hour, or Earth Day or Earth Live, last year's daylong concert for the environment?

Because climate change is essentially a political problem, and the language of politics is symbolism. Just because an act is symbolic doesn't mean it empty. (italics mine)

I contend that the power of symbols is an explanation of the dynamic and mysterious relationship between the tangible and the intangible; that which is feeling and emotion, and that which is concrete action. Symbols lie between the two, and link them together in a framework of meaning that gives inspiration and purpose to people. Humanity has, and will always be inextricably tied to symbols as a means of communication, and as a representation of something deep within the human soul, psyche, or spirit (whichever term you best like).

What is a symbol? It could be a figure-head, a person. It could be an action or activity. How about an icon, a brand, a logo, or even a habitual vice. A symbol could even be a job or career change, a new diet, and even a haircut. A symbol is anything that speaks to something deeper, that expresses the intangible, and is in many ways expresses reality with an accuracy that is absent outside of the symbol itself. And life is not only full of symbols, life is expressed and realized through symbols.

Why do you think we have weddings, funerals, ceremonies, salutes, parades, degrees, uniforms, celebrities, idioms, horoscopes, designer brands, and pets (yes, even pets can be symbolic of the kind of person we are). Each of these things are symbolic of something deep within the human spirit that is realized through the expression of the symbols themselves. The language of faith and politics, as the article pointed out, is all symbolic. The changing of a term (such as "global warming" to "climate change"), the building of a Temple, the fashioning of a whip and driving out Temple sellers (John 2:15), a Sabbath day, tassels (Numbers 15:37f), tefillin (phylacteries), a Torah scroll, bowing towards Mecca, wearing specific types of clothing, circumcision...they all mean something deeper than the symbol itself.

This perhaps explains why people who are depressed, or esteem themselves poorly usually don't take care of themselves physically by dressing up, or putting on makeup. Maybe this explains even more so why people who have a "poor" kind of appearance are interpreted by others with questionable and/or deprecating evaluations ("You don't looks so good. Are you okay?") Maybe this is why we are so concerned for other's living conditions in other parts of the world, and why we feel that they ought to have what we have in order for them to truly sense fulfillment in life (if they had what I had, physically, then they'll feel fulfilled and joyful like I do). Perhaps this is why there is classism based on economics, and racism between cultures, and sexism between genders. Money is a symbol that is interpreted as power, or prestige. Race is a symbol that is interpreted as intelligence, ability, and the fundamental morals that are attributed to your race or color to which you belong. Gender is a symbol of sexual power, and hierarchy. And all of these have been used, manipulated, and misinterpreted for thousands of years for the oppression or elevation of particular identified groups of society.

If we want to make sense of the world, if we want to redeem the world, if we truly believe that we have a responsibility to the entire created order around us, then just like the WWF has capitalized on this symbol in creating a movement that may mean more to the WWF than to the world, we must learn how to appropriately leverage this kind of symbolism in our endeavors.

So is it the chicken, or the egg? Is it the tangible that influences the spirit, or is it the soul that influences our physicality? Ought we spend our efforts in simply realizing the right ethics in order to communicate with different symbols, or should we develop new symbols, and allow new interpretations to rise from there? While the answer could seem to be a clear "yes," I'll propose that one direction is more compelling and powerful than the other, and it is exemplified in Earth Hour, in history, and in the teachings of Jesus.

And that direction is to speak first to the symbols, with the symbols, and with the right symbols; make them real and powerful, and the spirit of the people will surely follow. Sociologically speaking, actions cause beliefs, not the other way around. Historically, you don't convince people that Caesar is god and then build edifices as a result. You surround people, overwhelm them with symbolic actions (coins, temples, coronations), and that will move people to care (for better or worse) about substantiating the claim to divinity. According to Jesus, "Where your treasure is there your heart will be also." (Matthew 6:19-21)

My last observation, then, from a Biblical perspective is the power of obedience. The central prayer and declaration, in both Judaism and Christianity is the "Shema" (שמע), the words found in Deuteornomy 6:4f, (quoted by Jesus in Matthew 22:37f; Mark 12:28f.) The Hebrew word "hear" can also be understood as "obey." And throughout the Scriptures, obedience is of the highest value. Many decry this as robotic, blind, unintelligent, or dictatorial. Isn't God more interested in the heart? Are we not more concerned with the spirit? This is especially true in our neo-Gnostic Evangelical culture that has bifurcated the tangible from the intangible.

Obedience, however, in light of the power of symbols, and the hundreds of symbols that God commanded his people to exemplify, makes perfect sense, and is even more compellingly meaningful and real. If we were to take seriously the symbolic acts of faithful obedience (festivals, tassels, study, purity, etc.), then no doubt would our hearts follow. And in obeying, as an interpretative symbolic act, God accomplishes not only the mission of captivating the hearts of humanity, but saving the entire cosmos from destruction as well. Brilliant.

So whether it's personal depression and a change of attire, a youth group on a missions trip, or an entire world shutting off their lights for an hour, it is the symbols, the actions or the elements, that cause meaning, purpose, direction, and healing in life. The fullness of our humanity will be realized, not if we wait around for our spirits to be moved, but if we engage with, and faithfully follow through with, and in, the symbols around us.

In the true spirit of tree hugging, Ninja and Special K head down to the park to celebrate Earth Hour 2008. On the way they meet a star gazer, a cottager, and several screaming children. Oh yes and Ninja notices a computer mouse attached to a shampoo bottle slung over an overhead wire. Join this soundscape for a taste of the event Toronto style.

• 136hotfrmcelebratingearthhour2008 · 17.50 MB

That could well be a message from your local radio this weekend. Radio channels across Asia would be asking their listeners to turn off their lights for an hour or two today, 21 June 2008.

The Asia Pacific Broadcasting Union (Abu), an alliance of (mostly government-owned) radio and television stations across Asia, has urged broadcasters to join a campaign to encourage listeners to "Turn off Your Lights" for one or two hours as a step to raise awareness of global warming.

According to Abu, the Tokyo Broadcasting System (TBS) made the suggestion at a meeting in Tehran in November 2007. The Japanese broadcaster hopes that the event will encourage the public "to not only to save energy but to give consideration to wider global warming issues."

Global warming and resulting climate change are such major concerns that every action counts. So we hope the Abu-inspired campaign, although hardly original, will be successful.

It might have made more sense for the broadcast alliance to be part of the more widely observed Earth Hour -- an annual international event created by The World Wide Fund for Nature (WWF), held on the last Saturday of March, that asks households and businesses to turn off their non-essential lights and electrical appliances for one hour to raise awareness towards the need to take action on climate change. It was pioneered by WWF Australia and the Sydney Morning Herald in 2007, and achieved worldwide participation in 2008.

As this composite NASA image of the Earth at night shows, energy use is proportionate to the level of economic activity and social development. Asia accounts for a good deal of the world's lights at night.

But at the bigger picture level, broadcasters can and must do a great deal more than merely talk about the multi-faceted, rapidly-evolving issue. For a start, they need to take a closer look at their own industry, which is not known to be particularly efficient in its resource and energy use.

I've been writing and talking about the need for the TV broadcast and film-making industries to become more climate friendly (even if everybody can't immediately become carbon-neutral). These industries are not particularly known for their energy or resource use efficiency.

At Asia Media Summit 2007 held in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, Abu's secretary general himself chaired a session on climate change and the broadcsat media.

We heard passionate and articulate views from radio and television managers in Asia on how the airwaves can carry various messages that would sensitise governments, industry and individuals on the climate crisis -- and how to live with its many impacts. But I was frustrated that the session was entirely on broadcasters carrying climate change related news and content.

All that's necessary - but not sufficient. Surely, carrying relevant content is only one part of what broadcasters can do. When it was question time, I asked the more than 400 media managers in the audience: how can our own industries reorient core operations to become more climate friendly?

I didn't get clear answers to any of these questions from the dozens of movers and shakers in Asian broadcasting in the audience -- which indicated that these concerns have not been given sufficient thought.

This was disappointing, but I can only hope it doesn't stay that way for too long. Other players in the communication sector, such as telecom companies, have already started addressing industry-wide, smart contributions they can make in the pursuit of a more climate friendly society.

So here's the challenge to radio and TV broadcasters across Asia: by all means, ask your audiences to turn unnecessary lights off every now and then, or even every day. But like charity, good climate conduct begins at home. It's just not enough being a diligent distributor of climate messages or a mirror of contemporary society's attempts to adopt climate-friendly lifestyles.

That's when they can switch from being part of the problem to part of the solution.

CFLs have become more commonplace now and have lowered in price since they were introduced several years ago. I've even seen my local Dollar Stores carrying CFLs (although they were quite small and pretty much unbranded it was still nice to see). So what is it that sets this new CFL apart from it's predecssors?

It is a hybrid lightbulb that uses a "quick lamp" to help it reach full brightness about 50% faster than other fluorescents. It also has a longer life (rated at 13,000 hours, and 40,000 cycles).

So it lights up faster and it lasts longer, which is a pretty nice advancement in CFL technology. One thing that bugged treehugger.com about the light bulb was its peculiar name: "Pa-Look Ball Premium Q". A bit of a mouthful really, but with the ability to light up faster and last longer, I can't really complain. To learn more about the light bulb or and view pictures of it follow the links below:

Fluorescent Bulbs that Last 13,000 hrs by Panasonic
Panasonic develops new fluorescent bulbs that last for 13,000 hours

Ακόμη καλεσμένοι ήταν η κ. Βάσω Κανελλοπούλου, δημοσιογράφος, ο κ. Γιάννης Σακκιώτης, πολιτικός επιστήμονας και ο κ. Κρίτων Αρσένης, υπεύθυνος του Προγράμματος για την Αειφόρο Ανάπτυξη στο Αιγαίο της Ελληνικής Εταιρείας Περιβάλλοντος και Πολιτισμου.

Όσον αφορά στην προσπάθειά της ομάδας μας που κορυφώθηκε στις 29 Μαρτίου 2008, μπορείτε να δείτε στην εκπομπή πλάνα από το trailer της Ώρας της Γης καθώς και από την ε