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Living, not blogging

beelers — Sat, 06 Sep 2008 19:09:15 +0000

It's nice to shake off that feeling of obligation that I need to post on this blog. Although I enjoy blogging, it's not something that holds a high priority to me any more. I used to get anxious thinking about how many days had passed since my last post, but those days are gone.

I really haven't given it much thought lately.

Instead, I've focused on my career and my family. I've set some time aside to read books (real paper ones!) instead of skimming hundreds of blogs and news sites, although I still do those things too. Having an iPhone has bought me tons of freedom and makes it well worth the money. Now I can catch up on that stuff any time -- in the grocery line, during lunch, sitting at traffic lights -- and then I don't have this mass of time I feel like I have to spend in front of the computer when I get home.

I've also been culling a few digital drains on my life including reducing the number of newsfeeds I subscribe to and deleting things like MySpace, the ultimate time drain.

This has been great! I don't have that "gottareaditnow" anxiety I have been suffering from for years. Anyway, as I'm nearing 40, it's time to reassess my life. Quitting smoking was a good start. That was a bad habit that took me more than 10 years to kick. I feel sorry for anyone who picks it up "to have something to do with their hands" or "because it looks cool" or "because everyone else is doing it." It's bad news. Stay away from it.

Hacking caffeine out of my life (although it's creeping back in, just in smaller doses earlier in the day) was another good step. Julie and I have also given our diets a lot of thought and are focusing on fresher, healthier meals for ourselves and the kids.

Life is just damn good these days and getting better all the time. The kids give me fits sometimes as kids are wont to do, especially the first one. Zack refuses to even respond to any efforts I put forth to reach him. At least I know that I love him and I'm here for him and I've always told him the same so he should know that as well.

So I'll be ending this post now and who knows when the next one will show up. I don't have any emotional baggage I need to try to work through and I'm just focusing continuing to improve my life and the lives of those close to me.

AFC South Preview

piratings — Sat, 06 Sep 2008 14:57:26 +0000

AFC South Preview

With this preview, I will reveal the PiRate Ratings for each of the four teams in the AFC South Division. Following those ratings are the Mean Ratings and my own biased opinion (last year’s final PiRate Rating combined with how much stronger or weaker I personally think each team is compared to last season). That will give you three different ratings for the teams.

When all three ratings predict the same side to win a game against the spread, then that is a playable line. If all three ratings agree on the winner of the game, and the Las Vegas Line is single digits, then that becomes a playable game on the Money line. The reason for not playing any double digit spreads is that the Money line odds would be too prohibitive for a double digit favorite, where just one loss could result in a losing season. During the season, I will also supply a list of games to be played with an imaginary bank account.

The predicted records are not tied to the PiRate or Mean Ratings; they are strictly from my biased ratings.

I expect 2008 to have a changing of the guard at the top of the division. Indianapolis has dominated the South Division since its inception, and I believe Jacksonville is poised to take over the top spot this season. The Colts should still easily make the playoffs as a wildcard, while the Titans and Texans beat up on teams outside the division and threaten to make this two straight years with no losing record in the division.

Houston Texans
PiRate	99.0
Mean	97.5
Biased	97.3
Run Offense	D
Pass Offense	B+
Run Defense	B-
Pass Defense	C
Special Teams	A
Predicted Record	7-9

Offense: Matt Schaub is a better than average quarterback, but he has never played a full 16 games in any season. Backup Sage Rosenfels plays just as competently as Schaub, so there isn’t much difference in who plays under center. The big problem is an anemic running game. Ahman Green is well past his prime, and Chris Brown is an injury waiting to happen. Look for the Texans to finish under 100 yards per game in the rushing department. The receivers are competent but not fantastic. Kevin Johnson and Andre Walter aren’t game-breakers, but they aren’t chopped liver either. They will get open and catch passes, but don’t expect fancy yards per catch numbers.

Defense: The defense will progress as long as end Mario Williams continues to play like he did last year. Williams proved worthy of his being the first pick in the 2005 draft when he recorded 14 sacks and proved to be almost as good against the run last year. The secondary is a question, and lack of an adequate back line will prevent this team from taking a step forward.

Special Teams: When you have a player who returned three kicks for touchdowns the year before, you have to take notice. Andre Davis cannot possibly repeat that feat again this year, but he is likely to force opponents to alter their regular kickoff strategy. That will give the Texans good starting field position. Kicker Kris Brown has a strong and accurate leg, and he can win a game with a 55-yard field goal. Punter Matt Turk is more effective due to an outstanding coverage team

Summary: Houston may take a small step backward this year. With little running game support, teams will sell out and go hard at the Texan quarterbacks. It won’t be a return to the David Carr days, but it will mean a losing record.

Indianapolis Colts
PiRate	110.9
Mean	106.7
Biased	102.6
Run Offense	B
Pass Offense	A
Run Defense	B
Pass Defense	B
Special Teams	C
Predicted Record	10-6

Offense: Peyton Manning is still one of the best quarterbacks of all time, but this will be a down year for him. Never much of a scrambler, he will be even less mobile this year on the heels of minor surgery to repair an infected bursa sac in his left knee. Throw in the fact that his center for most of his time in the NFL, Jeff Saturday, is out with an MCL injury to his knee, and the Colts actually have an offensive liability of sorts this year. While Indy won’t all of a sudden look like the Chiefs, this offense will score fewer points this season than it has in many years. Look for a drop down to about 385 points.

Defense: The Colts’ defense is usually overlooked due to the powerful offense, but this year, the stop troops may be forced to dominate to win a couple of those tough games against playoff-quality opponents. There is a concern at the beginning of the year with the defensive line, as three starters (tackle Raheem Brock and ends Robert Mathis and Dwight Freeney) begin the season with injuries in their legs. The secondary is terrific, but they may have to defend a bit longer on passing plays this year if the pass rush fails to get to the quarterback.

Special Teams: The Colts are not strong here. Kicker Adam Vinateri suffered through his worst season last year, failing to make even one field goal of 40 yards or more. Whether that was an aberration or a sign of decline is still to be determined. Punter Hunter Smith is run-of-the-mill. T.J. Rushing has the potential to be a game-breaker in the return games.

Summary: Many teams would be ecstatic with a 10-6 record, but if the Colts fall to this mark, it will be a disappointment. After many years of 12, 13, or 14 wins, I see Indianapolis dropping to 10-6 and having to play as a wildcard in the playoffs.

Jacksonville Jaguars
PiRate	108.8
Mean	105.6
Biased	103.3
Run Offense	A-
Pass Offense	B
Run Defense	B
Pass Defense	B
Special Teams	B+
Predicted Record	11-5

Offense: David Garrard is an underrated passer who will start to get more recognition this season. Garrard plays intelligently, never forcing a pass when another option is available. He may not put up the numbers that Brady, Romo, or Peyton Manning puts up, but he gets the job done. Jacksonville should top 400 points for the second year in a row. There are some troubles in the receiving corps at the beginning of the season with injuries to Jerry Porter and Reggie Williams, but once they are healthy, this will be a solid but not spectacular group. The running game should be stable and consistent with quality depth. Fred Taylor will top 1,000 yards again if he stays healthy, while backup Maurice Jones-Drew has the potential to gain 1,000 yards if he gets more touches.

Defense: The Jaguars will be considerably better defensively this year, and that is why they have a shot at the Super Bowl. I expect the stop troops to respond positively to new coordinator Gregg Williams and his pressure defense. A healthier John Henderson will team with ends Paul Spicer and Reggie Hayward to make a formidable front line. The second line of defense is top-rate, and the trio should thrive in the new system. If middle linebacker Mike Peterson can play a full 16 games, the Jags could win 12 or even 13 games. Jacksonville has a pair of fine cornerbacks leading the secondary. Rashean Mathis and Brian Williams force passes away from their area.

Special Teams: This isn’t necessarily a strong unit, but they won’t lose games for the team either. Kicker Josh Scobee is more-than-adequate but not among the league’s elite. Punter Adam Podlesh is good at pooch punting the ball inside the opponents’ 20 yard line, but I expect he will have fewer chances to do so this year. Jones-Drew will cause opposing kickoff coverages to fret.

Summary: The Jags may repeat with an 11-5 record this year, but I expect 11 wins to be good enough to win the division. Additionally, this team may be better equipped to handle the playoffs. While San Diego and New England will be favored over them, the Jags are a challenger for AFC supremacy this year.

Tennessee Titans
PiRate	99.4
Mean	99.5
Biased	98.6
Run Offense	B
Pass Offense	C-
Run Defense	B
Pass Defense	B
Special Teams	B-
Predicted Record	7-9

Offense: This is a team of ifs. If Vince Young can become another version of Donovan McNabb rather than Bobby Douglass, the Titans have a chance to go places. However, it’s a big if. In the preseason, Young failed to lead the first team on any touchdown drives in the four games. His passes were off target with regularity. The next if is with the running game. If rookie Chris Johnson proves to be a breakaway back and can supplement the power running of LenDale White, the Titans can set up the pass with their running game, especially if Young can take off on some long scrambles. The receiving corps is nothing special, but Alge Crumpler, Justin Gage, and Justin McCareins will get open in the short to medium routes.

Defense: One player can make a difference, and it showed just how the Titans relied on him last year. With tackle Albert Haynesworth in the lineup, Tennessee went 10-3 last year. Without him, they were 0-3 and allowed double the amount of rushing yardage per game. Jevon Kearse returns to his original team replacing Antwan Odom. The linebacking unit features Keith Bulluck, one of the more underrated players in the league. The secondary is good but not great. Michael Griffin has the potential to be an all-pro safety, but he has to learn to play in control.

Special Teams: Kicker Rob Bironas was the top offensive weapon in 2007, and he enters the 2008 season with an injured groin. Punter Craig Hentrich is starting to show signs of age, but he is still serviceable. The Titans missed Pacman Jones last year (at least on the field), and they are looking for new blood to infuse their return game.

Summary: With two solid teams in the same division and an up and coming rival in their former city, the Titans are not going to repeat as an AFC Wildcard team this year. Tennessee will struggle to reach .500 this season. Young must step up and become a passing threat this year, or this team is headed for some rough times in the years ahead.

AFC North Preview

piratings — Sat, 06 Sep 2008 11:49:48 +0000

AFC North Preview

With this preview, I will reveal the PiRate Ratings for each of the four teams in the AFC North Division. Following those ratings are the Mean Ratings and my own biased opinion (last year’s final PiRate Rating combined with how much stronger or weaker I personally think each team is compared to last season). That will give you three different ratings for the teams.

The predicted records are not tied to the PiRate or Mean Ratings; they are strictly from my biased ratings.

The AFC North is a mediocre division this year. Having to play the tough NFC East means this division should finish under .500 as a quartet. I believe 9-7 will be good enough to grab a piece of first place.

Baltimore Ravens
PiRate	93.4
Mean	98.5
Biased	96.6
Run Offense	B
Pass Offense	D
Run Defense	A-
Pass Defense	C
Special Teams	B
Predicted Record	5-11

Offense: The Ravens’ best offense may be their defense and special teams this year. New head coach John Harbaugh inherits an inept offense that now must rely on rookie Joe Flacco to move the team. Baltimore’s offense will be quite conservative, and it will fall on Willis McGahee to carry the load. However, he had arthroscopic surgery on his left knee three weeks ago and is likely to miss the first game if not more. Wide receivers Mark Clayton and Derrick Mason are both possession receivers with little deep threat. Defenses won’t fret getting beat deep and will crowd the line. The offensive line is not strong either.

Defense: The once dominant defense is beginning to show its age. The Ravens are no longer a team that can shut opponents down, and they surrendered 24 points a game last year after giving up 12.6 in 2006. Look for a slight rebound this season if only because the team gets more conservative on offense and shortens games by a half dozen plays. The strength of the team is their run defense with a couple of 300+ aircraft carriers in the trenches. It will be quite difficult to move 6-0, 310 nose tackle Kelly Gregg, 6-4, 340 end Haloti Ngota, and 6-5, 286 end Trevor Pryce, so teams will not have much success running the ball between the tackles. Pass defense is another story, and the Ravens will give up 230 to 250 yards per game through the air.

Special Teams: Kicker Matt Stover had a poor 2007 season and could find himself on the firing line if he repeats it in 2008. The Ravens will need more accuracy outside of 40 yards this season because they will have a hard time getting past the 20 yard line. Punter Sam Koch gets little support from his coverage team, so he will finish near the bottom in net punting average. Return specialist Yamon Figurs gives the Ravens their high grade. He scored twice last year with long returns.

Summary: Baltimore will find a way to beat some teams that rely on the run to set up the pass, but that type of offense is archaic today. Because the rest of the division is vulnerable, the Ravens may actually be competitive and keep games close, but it looks like another last place finish in Crabtown.

Cincinnati Bengals
PiRate	97.3
Mean	97.4
Biased	96.6
Run Offense	C-
Pass Offense	A
Run Defense	C
Pass Defense	C-
Special Teams	C+
Predicted Record	7-9

Offense: The team will go as far as quarterback Carson Palmer can take it. Palmer could be another Peyton Manning if his offensive line gave him a tad more time to throw and his receivers could get their heads into the game instead of messing around with extracurricular activities. That pass catching contingent could be top-rate if they concentrate on football and stay out of the news. T.J. Houshmandzadeh can be counted on to get open and catch 5 to 10 passes a game, but he cannot do it alone. Chad Ocho Cinco (Johnson) could be a game-breaker if he decides to get his head in the game. He’s also playing with an injured shoulder as the season begins. The running game will be weak. Chris Perry will be carrying the ball behind a young line that gives up big plays to defensive front sevens.

Defense: In a polar opposite to the Ravens, the Bengals best defense may be a time-consuming offense. Cincinnati gave up more than 24 points per game last year, and there’s little reason to think they will improve in 2008. There is virtually no pass rush coming from this team, and the secondary is not good enough to contain enemy receivers without some help from the trenches. The Bengals have to face the Manning brothers, Ben Roethlisberger and Derek Anderson twice each, Tony Romo, Brett Favre, David Garrard, Matt Schaub, and Donovan McNabb this season; expect the orange and black to give up more than 4,000 passing yards. That will lead to more defeats than wins.

Special Teams: There isn’t much to talk about here. Kicker Shayne Graham has accuracy but lacks distance. Kyle Larson is one of the weaker punters in the NFL. Glenn Holt is one of the better kick return specialists, but Antonio Chatman offers nothing as a punt returner.

Summary: Cincinnati will outscore some teams, and the defense will win maybe one or two games against the weaker opponents. However, it won’t add up to a return to the playoffs. The schedule is too tough to expect a winning record, but the Bengals could still be in the hunt on the last week of November. It isn’t entirely impossible that 8-8 could tie for the division title this year.

Cleveland Browns
PiRate	99.5
Mean	96.8
Biased	99.8
Run Offense	B
Pass Offense	A
Run Defense	C+
Pass Defense	C
Special Teams	A-
Predicted Record	9-7

Offense: In 2007, the Browns topped 400 points for the first time in years. They could and should do it again this season. When you can stretch defenses with a vertical passing game, yet force them to bring up an extra man to stop a powerful running game, you are going to score points and access yardage on a consistent basis. Start with quarterback Derek Anderson. Once he learned the complex system, he became a standout passer. I expect a 4,000 yard, 30-touchdown season out of him this year if he stays healthy. His starting trio of receivers could be the best in the league. Braylon Edwards, Donte Stallworth, and Kellen Winslow provide both deep threat and possession abilities. They should combine for 225 catches and around 3,200 yards. Running back Jamal Lewis thrived in the Browns offense, and he should enjoy another big year if he stays healthy. The offensive line is particularly strong on the left side with Joe Thomas and Eric Steinbach.

Defense: The stop side is a polar opposite to the attack side. The only way Cleveland’s offense could be grounded is if opponents hold onto the ball all day against a porous defense. New defensive linemen Shaun Rogers and Corey Williams could help improve the pass defense, but neither is a game-changing player. Inside linebacker Kamerion Wimbley has the potential to develop into a stud with a slightly improved front three, but the other three spots are manned by considerably less talented players. The secondary is even more of a concern than the linebacking unit. Cleveland will give up close to 250 passing yards per game this season.

Special Teams: The Browns are set here with a fine group of players. Phil Dawson has a strong and accurate leg, while punter Dave Zastudil will improve from an injury-plagued 2007. Josh Cribbs is the top combined punt and kick returner in the AFC, but he begins the season with an injured ankle.

Summary: Cleveland will be involved in some 38-35 games and will experience this as both a winner and loser. If the defense shows any sign of improvement, the Browns will be cruising to the playoffs as division champs. However, any regression in the offense could send them reeling into third place. I expect more of the same for this team, which means they will be locked in a battle with Pittsburgh for the division title.

Pittsburgh Steelers
PiRate	105.4
Mean	102.7
Biased	99.3
Run Offense	B
Pass Offense	B+
Run Defense	B
Pass Defense	B
Special Teams	C
Predicted Record	9-7

Offense: Ben Roethlisberger had a fantastic 2007 season, ending the year with a 104.7 passer rating. Expect Coach Mike Tomlin to open up the playbook this year, and that means the Steelers will pass the ball several times more in 2008. Santonio Holmes is a great deep threat, while Hines Ward is a great possession receiver. Rookie Limas Sweed will give Roethlisberger a big target and should contribute plenty this season. Another rookie, Rashard Mendenhall, should press Willie Parker for carries at the running back position. Mendenhall combines speed and power, and he could become the next Jerome Bettis.

Defense: Pittsburgh’s 2007 defense was almost worthy of bringing back the nickname “Steel Curtain.” Expect the team to give up a few more points this season, as the offense won’t be holding onto the ball as long as they did last year. There is a concern with the pass defense for the beginning of the year as multiple starters are banged up, but all are expected to start the season opener against Houston.

Special Teams: The Steelers rank in the bottom half of the league here. Kicker Jeff Reed doesn’t have the leg strength to get those last second 50-yard field goals. Punter Mitch Berger was let go by Arizona, and he should lose field position with every exchange of punts. Mewelde Moore takes over the chief return duties after Pittsburgh received nothing from these positions last year.